Boeing forecasts that Africa’s commercial aircraft fleet will more than double by 2045, with the region’s cargo fleet expected to grow to 150 freighters from 60 aircraft as growth in logistics, e-commerce and exports drives demand for air cargo capacity across the continent.
Market expansion and fleet projections
The US planemaker’s long-term market outlook projects deliveries of 15 new cargo planes as part of a broader fleet expansion, alongside 870 single-aisle jets and 240 wide-body aircraft. The region’s cargo fleet growth of 150% reflects the increasing importance of air freight in supporting intra-African trade and connecting the continent to global markets.
Passenger traffic within Africa is expected to grow by 6.5% annually by 2045, while Africa-Middle East traffic is projected to expand by 7.1% a year, the fastest rate among the region’s major travel markets. This passenger growth will also support belly-hold cargo capacity on passenger flights, complementing dedicated freighter operations.
Drivers of demand and regional players
Several factors are driving the expansion of air cargo capacity, including the growth of e-commerce across African markets, rising exports of perishable agricultural products, and the need for reliable logistics solutions to support manufacturing and industrial development. Carriers including Ethiopian Airlines, EgyptAir and Kenya Airways, whose fleets mainly consist of Boeing and Airbus aircraft for long-haul routes, dominate the African market. These carriers operate dedicated freighter services alongside passenger flights, providing belly-hold capacity for cargo on international routes.
Shahab Matin, Boeing’s managing director for commercial marketing in Africa and the Middle East, said Africa’s market was entering a period of sustained growth driven by improving connectivity, expanding intraregional travel and deeper economic ties.
Infrastructure and workforce needs
The cargo fleet expansion coincides with African countries’ investment in logistics infrastructure, including cold chain facilities, cargo terminals, and digital customs systems. For instance, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to boost intra-African trade from approximately US$200 billion to US$500 billion.
Africa’s dominant carriers typically use Embraer, ATR and De Havilland aircraft on regional routes. However, the forecast for wide-body and dedicated freighter deliveries indicates rising demand for larger aircraft capable of carrying substantial cargo loads on intercontinental routes.
Meeting the expansion will require 75,000 additional aviation workers, including 22,000 pilots, 25,000 technicians and 28,000 cabin crew, according to Boeing. This workforce growth is essential to support passenger and cargo operations across the region.
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